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What is scenario progress?

Scenario Progress provides a measurement of how much of a scenario has already played out in the marketplace. For instance, a crash scenario might call for an S&P decline of 40% from current levels. If the S&P were to decline by 20%, then HiddenLevers' model would indicate that this scenario is 50% complete, with only 20% additional downside remaining. Taking this approach enables the HiddenLevers scenario model to account for daily changes in the economic environment.

In the example below the key lever is the Euro, and in the scenario this starts at an exchange rate of $1.14 per Euro and declines to a final value $0.99.  The scenario progress is a measure of what value that key lever is actually at when the report is run against the range of change included in the scenario, i.e. how far the economic situation has progressed in the scenario.  In the case below, the scenario is actually happening and the Euro has started the decline predicted by the scenario events, having already fallen on the day to an exchange rate of $1.1372, or 8% of the total predicted decline, therefore the scenario progress is 8% (circled in red):

 

And this is where it appears in a report (circled in red):