Scenario Progress provides a measurement of how much of a scenario has already played out in the marketplace. For instance, a crash scenario might call for an S&P decline of 40% from current levels. If the S&P were to decline by 20%, then HiddenLevers' model would indicate that this scenario is 50% complete, with only 20% additional downside remaining. Taking this approach enables the HiddenLevers scenario model to account for daily changes in the economic environment.
In the example below the key lever is the S&P 500. This scenario starts at 2900 and declines to a final value of 2024.63. The scenario progress is a measure of what value that key lever is actually at when the report is run against the range of change included in the scenario, i.e. how far the economic situation has progressed in the scenario. In the case below, since the S&P has fallen to 2735, a value between the start and end values, the scenario progress is currently 18% (circled in red):
And this is where it appears in a report (circled in red):
